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US-based consultancy firm GlobalSource Partners has upgraded its full- year gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines following the release this week of encouraging second quarter data.
Analysts Romeo L. Bernardo and Margarita D. Gonzales, banking on strong consumer demand in the first semester, hiked their 2012 GDP outlook to 5.5% from 5%,
All in all, despite slowing momentum, domestic demand seems strong enough in H1 to bring full-year growth to above 5% this year -- likely closer to 5.5% in our estimate, Mr. Bernardo and Ms. Gonzales said in an Aug. 30 market brief.
It was the second revision for the year for GlobalSource, which in June upgraded its original 2012 outlook of 4.5% to 5%, also citing strong domestic demand.
The forecast remains within the official 5-6% target for the year. It compares to lower expectations by the International Monetary Fund (4.8%) and the World Bank (4.6%).
The government on Thursday announced that the economy grew by 5.9% in the April-June period, down from the first quarter's revised 6.3%. It was just above the median forecast in a BusinessWorld poll of analysts.
For the rest of the year, Mr. Bernardo and Ms. Gonzales said the economy should find support from the services exports, as the sector registered the highest growth at 7.6% in the three months to June.
The country's BPO firms seem to be resilient so far to global crises, they noted.
Mr. Bernardo and Ms. Gonzales , however, downgraded their 2013 growth forecast due to lingering uncertainties in the global economy.
Given the still negative outlook on global growth next year, we lower our forecast for 2013 from 5.5% to 5%, which is still an optimistic forecast that partly depends on elections and related public spending helping to drive growth, the analysts said.
The government has a 6-7% GDP growth target for next year.
Last year, the Philippines grew by a lackluster 3.9%, from a record 7.6% in 2010, due partly to government underspending.
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