September
2, 2018 | 8:40 pm
Introspective
By Romeo L. Bernardo
IN his third State of the
Nation Address (SONA) in July, President Rodrigo Durterte urged Congress to
work on his proposal to change the Constitution to enable the Philippines to
shift from the current presidential to a federal form of government. Curiously
as we observed in our brief, he did it less forcefully then what many had
expected considering that federalism, along with the drug war and
anti-corruption drive, had been an oft-repeated subject of his lengthy
monologues. Today, a month after that speech, the drive for federalism seems to
be waning.
What happened? To start
with, there was never popular support for federalism, nor even awareness, of
what the proposal was about. Then on the day of the SONA, the fiercest champion
of federalism in Congress, the then speaker, was ousted and replaced with
former President Gloria Arroyo who does not seem to share her predecessor’s
enthusiasm for fast-tracking the proposal. Then, when asked, the President’s
own economic team was critical of the proposal’s dire fiscal impact with the
Finance Secretary telling members of the Senate that he would “absolutely” not
vote for it. The economic team’s position was soon echoed by business and civil
society in a rare joint statement issued by seven large business groups and 19
advocacy organizations. Too, the Supreme Court’s ruling granting local
governments a larger stake in national taxes may have helped assuage some of
the regional discontent with “Imperial Manila.”
And yet, the fuss over
federalism is continuing with Malacañang now promoting voter education for
public support. Is this another example of a strongman trying to get his way no
matter what?
Those who charge the
President with chiseling away at Philippine democratic institutions would
readily agree, and perhaps they have grounds to believe so.
Nevertheless, there is
another possibility that we find hard to refute. This view argues that for
President Duterte, the federalism campaign is just a matter of keeping options
open. The ultimate objective, per this line of reasoning, is effective
succession planning, one that would allow him to escape Philippine democracy’s
disturbing cycle of successive leaders sending their predecessors to jail.
Indeed, many have observed that in the country’s post-democracy era, only
President Corazon Aquino had managed her succession successfully.
If this is the case, then
fate has favored him with an unequalled ally in the person of Speaker Arroyo.
The former president, who had been under hospital arrest during most of her
successor’s term, had tried to amend the Constitution through various means
during her presidency ( though she preferred then a unitary parliamentary to a
federal presidential system). From all indications, Speaker Arroyo remains
committed to this vision. She has, however, only nine months remaining in her
third and last congressional term and has dismissed the former speaker’s plan
to cancel the 2019 mid-term elections (supposedly to give Congress time to work
on federalism).
What will she do then? For
one who considers politics the art of the possible, she would most likely have
several cards under her sleeve and close to her chest. For now, she has put the
onus of setting the President’s proposal aside on the Senate, which has refused
to participate in a constituent assembly, the President’s preferred avenue for
changing the Constitution. Meanwhile, she has busied herself tending to matters
that the President has no appetite for, i.e., the economy, and possibly filling
a vacuum in leadership. The months ahead will reveal how the stars will align
for the two most powerful people in the country.
In the meantime, the
success of the President’s daughter (the mayor of Davao City) in forming a
formidable alliance between her regional party (Hugpong Ng Pagbabago or HNP)
and nine other national and local parties has opened up another path that may
allow the President to retire in peace to his hometown at the end of his term.
Of course, he still has four years to go in his term and in Philippine
politics, that is light years away.”
Romeo L. Bernardo was
Finance Undersecretary during the Cory Aquino and Ramos administrations. He is
a fellow of the Foundation for Economic Freedom and a Governor of the
Management Association of the Philippines.
