Presidential race: Continuity or change

Philippine Daily Inquirer

01:03 AM August 10th, 2015

(From left) Interior Secretary Mar Roxas, Sen. Grace Poe, Vice President Jejomar Binay, Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte

The Philippine presidential election in 2016 is shaping up as a battle between “continuity” and “change” in governance with four candidates likely to vie to be the next CEO of the land but without any clear front-runner yet in sight, according to New York-based think tank Global Source.

After President Aquino endorsed Interior Secretary Mar Roxas as his successor while framing the next presidential vote as a referendum for the “straight and righteous path,” Global Source said the aspirants would likely take guidance from their rankings in scheduled September polls of voter preference.

The Global Source commentary, dated Aug. 7 and written by Filipino economists Romeo Bernardo and Marie-Christine Tang, said the presidential election was bringing “heightened uncertainty for investors,” especially as it was emerging as a multicontender race with “no clear front-runner, specifically one who can assure bureaucrats of continuity in the executive branch, key in our view to unlocking promised state spending.”

‘Only the beginning’

Toward the end of his final address to Congress on July 27, the President attempted to recast the 2016 presidential election as a vote for continuity, saying that economic progress under his administration was “only the beginning” then endorsed the candidacy of a teary-eyed Roxas four days later, Global Source said.

“The tactic is a clever one intended to translate popular support for the President, who has managed to spring back from low ratings in the wake of the Mindanao crisis early this year, into votes for Mr. Roxas, who is lagging in presidential preference polls. If it succeeded in painting the other contender, Vice President Jejomar Binay, who is hounded by allegations of corruption, as one taking the ‘crooked’ path, so much the better,” the think tank said.

More mass appeal

But Global Source said Binay—who says he has never backed out of a fight—would not take all this sitting down.

Between Roxas and Binay, the think tank deemed Binay the one with more mass appeal.

Despite the much-publicized investigations of charges of past wrongdoing, the think tank noted that Binay continued to enjoy relatively high popularity scores and in the last presidential preference poll, had a significant 11-point lead over Roxas.

“Even as the administration is trying to frame the 2016 contest as one between continuity (straight) and change (crooked), Mr. Binay, an astute politician who grew up in poverty, is playing the rich versus poor card to the hilt,” Global Source said.

Binay and Roxas had long been gearing up for this rematch since 2010 when Roxas gave way to Mr. Aquino as the Liberal Party standard-bearer only to lose the vice presidency to Binay.

“Although Mr. Binay heretofore has had the upper hand in imaginary matchups between the two, many believe that with continuing unveiling of ‘evidence’ of Mr. Binay’s vast accumulated wealth that would make his rich versus poor cry sound hollow, Mr. Roxas would quickly catch up and with the support of the administration machinery, he could soon gain the advantage,” Global Source said.

“In fact, some believe that the only thing left for Mr. Roxas to do to secure his bid is to persuade Sen. Grace Poe to be his running mate. But as Philippine presidential elections go, it is very unlikely that it will be a two-man race,” the think tank said.

Grace factor

At the moment, Global Source said Poe did not appear too keen to be Roxas’ running mate.

“After all, she scores the highest in presidential preference surveys and it seems that some in the administration party favors her over Mr. Roxas, seeing in her the same commitment to the straight path while offering a refreshing change from traditional politicians,” Global Source said.

Poe, a junior senator, is widely expected to team up with Sen. Francis Escudero on an independent ticket.

There has been bad blood between Escudero and Roxas, as Escudero supported Binay in the 2010 vice-presidential race.

Escudero has had a falling out with Binay afterward.

Several political parties have reportedly offered to adopt the Poe-Escudero team but nothing has been concluded.

“Clearly though, [Poe’s] entry into the race will benefit Mr. Binay, as she and Mr. Roxas will split the votes of those supportive of the administration. To date, she remains noncommittal about her plans and with legal issues raised about her citizenship/residency eligibility, her decision may well depend on her assessment of vulnerability to disqualification down the road,” Global Source said.

Global Source was the first institution to predict that Poe, an adopted daughter of movie actors Fernando Poe Jr. and Susan Roces, could be one of the presidential contenders in 2016 after topping the senatorial election in 2013.

Duterte

Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte could be another “credible challenger” to Binay and Roxas, Global Source said, citing the media buzz created by Duterte while “supposedly not campaigning.”

“For a mayor from the South who has denied interest to seek the presidency, he seems to be in the national limelight quite a lot. Rumors persist that he is just waiting to see how he will fare in the next voter surveys (in September) and if the numbers turn significantly up, he can be prevailed upon to join the fray,” Global Source said.

Priority reforms

As the Aquino administration heads into its last mile, Global Source said reform efforts were likely to “slow to a crawl.”

In his final address to Congress, the President mentioned five priority bills—Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), rationalization of fiscal incentives, antidynasty law, unified uniformed personnel pension reform bill and the 2016 budget.

A sixth proposed measure, freedom of information bill, was not mentioned in the speech but was cited by the President a day later.

“While we are confident that the President has enough influence over Congress to ensure the timely passage of the budget and Congress itself may want to support pensions for uniformed personnel, we are less optimistic about the other bills,” Global Source said.

“If ever, the executive may need to accept watered-down versions of its proposals, like what happened to the recently enacted Cabotage Law, which limited foreign ships’ cargo handling to those coming also from foreign vessels. The BBL, meant to be this administration’s legacy, remains controversial and difficult for legislators facing reelection to support,” it said.

Overall, Global Source said, external risks have increased for the Philippine economy.

“Our outlook, which sees GDP (gross domestic product) growth at 6.1 percent in 2015 and 6.5 percent in 2016, is one of guarded optimism that considers robust domestic demand growth alongside softer export demand, increasing foreign investor caution, more volatile global financial markets and risk of a stronger El Niño weather disturbance,” Global Source said, adding that political uncertainties were likewise adding to the “unpleasant brew.”

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