Remarks for 2025 Kamustahan Session

 REMARKS FOR 2025 KAMUSTAHAN SESSION

THEME: GROUNDED IN PURPOSE: THE ROLE OF VALUES IN CAREER GROWTH

MBM ROMEO BERNARDO:  “CARER ADVICE I WOULD HAVE GIVEN MY YOUNGER SELF”

NOVEMBER 27,2025 1:30-5:00PM

BSP 18/F AUDITORIUM MSB MALATE MANILA

 

 

Opening 

 

• Warm greeting: “Good afternoon everyone. I stand before you today not as a Monetary Board Member, but as someone who has made a lot of mistakes, had a few lucky breaks, and somehow ended up here. So let me share the career advice I wish I could whisper to my younger self — and maybe it will resonate with you too.”

 

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The Role of Luck 

 

• “The role of luck is often under‑appreciated. Genes, family circumstances, — these are strokes of fortune, be grateful as i am if you have been blessed by fortune.  In my case,  having loving parents w solid middle class values, who put a premium to a good education.   I am sure many here share similar circumstances.  But even if not, don’t despair ,  luck does not define destiny. 

 

I can cite several examples of men and women who are truly self made— Henry Sy Sr., John Gokongwei , Nanay Socorro Ramos et al  in the field of business.  By the same token, i can cite scions of the big business families when i was a boy, whose children have not been able to even preserve their families’ businesses.  Or in other fields, Manny Pacquiao, Nora Aunor come to mind.

 

 But who can really say what is good luck and what is bad luck?

 

Years ago, I heard a great parable that illustrates well.
• A farmer finds a wild horse in his field. He’s able to lead the horse home and puts him in his stable.

• The neighbors upon hearing about the horse, congratulate him on his good luck.

• The farmer simply replies, “Good luck or bad luck, who knows?”
• The next day his son, while trying to train the horse, ends up being thrown, and breaks his leg.

• The neighbors upon hearing about the son, console the farmer on his bad luck.

• The farmer simply replies, “Good luck or bad luck, who knows?”

• The next day while the son is in the hospital, the representative from the emperor comes into town to draft conscripts for the army to fight on the border. His son is released from his obligation because of his broken leg.

• The neighbors upon hearing about his son missing the draft, congratulate him on his good luck.

• The farmer simply replies, “Good luck or bad luck, who knows?”

• After a week, the son comes home to finish recovering. While at the hospital he met a nurse and fell in love, and decided to get engaged.

• The neighbors upon hearing about the engagement, congratulate him on his good luck.

• The farmer simply replies, “Well, when it comes to marriage…good luck or bad luck, who knows?”

• Events and circumstances of life are neutral. It’s up to you to decide if you have bad, or good luck

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Decisions Shape Life 

 

• “After luck, the rest of life. is decisions. The two biggest: who you marry ( or if you marry at all), and what you study.”

In my own case,  i have decided wisely on both counts.  

I met my wife opposite the championship debating floor in UP Open Debate.  She completely demolished me, won the debate …but i won her heart.  I was attracted to her not only because she is pretty— our daughter is in the audience and she is a truly lucky girl,  she looks like her mom!  Her mom is also smart, which Mini inherited too,  i would like to think from both her parents.

• Let me ask you here for the married ones.  Pls raise your hand if you married someone smarter than you. “Congratulations, you’ve hedged your risk.”

My studying economics in school was a combination of choice and luck.  When i was in H.S. I wanted to be an artist.  My lawyer father said a bad idea— “you will starve”,  and instructed me to take up law and follow his footsteps in UP Law.   I was an obedient son and enrolled in Business Economics as a pre-law course.  Then martial law was declared.  Both my ex GF ( now wife ) , decided to disobey our parents and not to follow our fathers’ paths,  ask why take  up law when the rule of law was suspended, and stayed in Economics,  and got married instead.  I have never regretted that decision.

( Later in life after taking early retirement at 40, i took art lessons.  I now know my father knew best.  I didnt have artistic talent and would have indeed starved! )

Which is a good segue to an important lesson.  A standard career inspiration advice is “follow your bliss”.  What they don’t stress enough is know yourself.  Your talents and limitations.  

 

Lifelong Learning 

 

After you’ve decided what you want to be professionally, commit to it. Not just in school, but throughout life.  Learning is lifelong!  This is true not just with work, but the other aspects of life.  

My advice to my children when they were growing up was to Read Read Read.  I gave them unlimited budget on books— yes including graphic novels which our youngest son “gamed” me to ok.  He now works as a commercial artist.

Read anything and everything.  I read a lot of novels and history as a youth.  And learned much about life and human behavior. 

These days, i think young people learn more through teleseryes .  Thats ok too.  I remember that The Economist reviewed “Breaking Bad” said it was the equivalent an MBA degree.  I agree.  So Netflix is now professional development. Just don’t put it in your CV.

 

More seriously, i envy the young at their/your access to knowledge at your finger tips via the internet.  During my time we had to endure bad teachers who mumble to themselves or who speak to the blackboard . Now you have access to the best Professors  in the best universities! Take advantage of these. 

 

Values/ Character

 

I earlier said that Luck does not define destiny.  You know what does? 

Character.  And character is not what you are born with,  its something we all have to strive and work on all our lives.

1.) Kindness, pakiipagkapwa, malasakit 

Altruism, i think, is hard wired , golden rule is universal .  Whether  you think its because of faith or because of natural and social evolution as i do.  It is what makes us humans, and how mankind thrived .  As a specie we were not the strongest or the fastest. But we early on learned to work together as a community.  first to hunt, to protect the physically weak among us ( children and women ) , to build simple huts, later irrigation, roads, networks.  Helping one another.

Acts of kindnesses is not only good for the community or the specie. It is also good for the giver of kindness.  It is reciprocated over the long term. And even when it is not,  the giver feels good .  We all know that feeling.

( Maybe, not all, there is aberrant behavior we read about, but they will have their just rewards.  If not here in the next life.  Hell if one is a Christian, or if anyone here is Buddhist and believe in reincarnation — may they all be re born as the cockroaches that they are  in their next life! ) .

 

We here at the BSP are one community— let us all find the spirit to work together as one esp this season of giving .

2. Integrity

This brings me to the second pillar of key values— integrity.  The quality of being honest and having strong moral principles.  It has many dimensions.  Walking the talk.  Never lying.  Fulfilling your commitments.  Respecting other people’s rights and property, including intellectual property. Giving credit not only for published work, but to your colleagues’ ideas.

 

3. Commitment/ Strive for excellence

We Pinoys are often mahilig sa “puede na”, almost setting up mediocrity as a standard.  So different from the almost obsessive commitment to excellence we observe say w Japanese, or Koreans.  I confess that i myself been guilty of that and even at my age, have to resist this proclivity.

——

How is character formed?  It starts from the school. Then at work.  

 

• “Find mentors. If your parents or teachers weren’t great, look for role models. At work, your mentor doesn’t have to be your boss. Sometimes it’s the colleague who quietly gets things done.  

 

In my own case, i was lucky to be born to parents who were exemplary.  The downside is that sometimes, i would think of them and feel bad that i have fallen short.

 

In early schooling i was lucky to have teachers in Catholic schools who cared , and professors in UP who taught us critical thinking.

 

I was also lucky to have worked under people who were true inspirations. 

 

After a brief stint at teaching Finance in UP College of Business Administration, i worked in the Staff of then Finance Secretary Cesar Virata.

 

I would only repeat here what i said when MBM Lea and i hosted his 94th bday last year.

 

“Happy birthday to a man who was an important reason why many of us joined the DoF in the last millennium.  Who served as a mentor and model for us throughout our careers and lives.  From his example, we learned what it means to be a public servant, a good citizen, and a human being of integrity, kindness, and humility— and of true love of country.”

 

And after i took early retirement from government service in 1996, after 20 years , ending  as Undersecretary,  my mentor in the private sector was Former Energy Secretary Delfin Lazaro, who put back the lights in the country both literally and metaphorically during the Ramos administration. Together w Atty Helen Tiu, we formed a financial advisory group:  Lazaro Bernardo Tiu, where i learned  many of the simple success tips i will share w you below.  I also  learned from the leaders of the companies i was privileged to have served as Board Director for two decades, before returning full circle to my first love , public service.

 

 

1.     Be there :  presence is 80 pc of the game and..

2.    Be on time :  it tells the other people you value their time

3.    Look for win wins— most transactions are not zero sum

4.   Don’t make enemies— unless really necessary

5.    Disagree when you need to— but don’t be disagreeable 

6.   Choose your battles

7.    Hire people smarter than you ( if you’re the smartest person in the room, you’re the wrong place ).

8.   Share credit freely with your colleagues. Don’t fret about who gets the credit.  Cream rises to the top.

9.   Be generous w praise and smiles.  Will allow you to be hard line when you need to be.

10. Under promise but overdeliver.  Manage expectations

11.   Never lie or bullshit. If you don’t know the answer, say i will find out and revert.

12. Have a career plan, but be agile and flexible.  The dots will connect

13. Don’t be afraid of being a “devils advocate”,  a position that originated w the Catholic Church 

14. When embarking on a project or an investment do risk management , look esp at the possibility of failures.  And weigh if worth the upsides.

15. Have an exit strategy… for everything.

16. Be humble. Be especially nice to people less fortunate than you.  And remember, the people you meet on your way up, will be the same people you will meet on your way down.

 

And finally, my last advice learned perhaps the hard way.  Work life balance.

( Some personal reflections… ) 

 

Remarks before the Bankers Institute of the Philippines, Inc. (BAIPHIL) on August 19 ,2025, Dusit Thani Hotel, Makati City by Monetary Board Member Romeo L. Bernardo

Staying the Course, Steering the Future[1]

 

Good afternoon, colleagues and friends. It’s wonderful to be back with you.

 

Let me begin by congratulating BAIPHIL’s officers on another strong year. Your work—training, connecting, and guiding members—remains vital in keeping the country’s banking system stable and resilient.

 

Your theme “Continuing Partnership to R.I.S.E. in Banking—Resilience. Inclusivity. Sustainability. Engagement.” is timely and powerful.

 

So, let me ask: What does it mean to rise when the ground beneath us keeps shifting?

 

Let me highlight a few key developments that are shaping our path ahead.

 

• First, inflation is easing. Over the past five months, inflation has come down to less than two percent, thanks to moderating rice and energy prices and actions by the BSP.^[2] We expect the full-year average this year to settle near the lower end of our target range. But what matters even more is how people see inflation one year from now. Based on our surveys, expectations remain anchored—people believe inflation will stay low over the next year.^[3]

 

• Second, our economy is growing steadily. GDP expanded by 5.5 percent in the second quarter, placing the Philippines as the second fastest-growing economy in the region.^[4] This momentum is supported by a healthy banking sector. Lending continues to grow, and digital financial channels are helping households and firms to continue to invest and spend.

 

• Third, our banking system remains strong and resilient. We continue to exceed international standards in capital buffers, liquidity coverage, and asset quality. Our non-performing loan ratio is steady at 3.4 percent, and capital adequacy stands at 16.5 percent. Key regulatory reforms—such as the new Capital Markets Efficiency Promotion Act—are expected to deepen our domestic financial markets, facilitating more efficient funding for infrastructure, innovation, and national priorities.

 

• Of course, we face headwinds. Global trade tensions and lingering geopolitical risks have introduced uncertainty, affecting both emerging and advanced economies. For small, open economies like ours, remaining insulated is difficult—especially with rising U.S. protectionism expected to impact not only trade in goods but also services and remittances. In addition to imposing higher tariffs on its trade partners, the U.S. has introduced a tax on remittances and is now considering measures to curb offshoring.  So far, the overall impact on our external balance has been limited, supported by steady remittance inflows—which have reached nearly US$14 billion as of May this year. Service exports from our IT-BPM industry remain robust and are expected to overtake remittance receipts for the first time this year.

 

• Finally, we have solid buffers despite these external shocks. Our gross international reserves (or GIR) stand at US$105.7 billion, enough to cover 7.2 months of imports^[5] and 3.4 times the country's short-term external debt.

 

These aren’t just good numbers—they show we’re learning to navigate the storms.

 

Let us now break down what R.I.S.E. means in practice.

 

R for “Resilience”

 

Resilience today goes beyond capital buffers and spreadsheets. In a digital world, it means standing firm against cyberattacks, fraud, outages, and even economic sabotage. Operational disruptions in the financial system are escalating.

 

BSP’s cybersurveillance activities show a continued trend in cybercrime-related losses for the first half of 2025.  Prevalent threats target the human element, which includes phishing, card-not-present fraud, and unauthorized access. This indicates attempts by threat actors to continually exploit vulnerabilities of digital financial consumers. Nonetheless, net losses declined notably, driven by improved loss-recovery mechanisms and cooperation among financial institutions.

 

That is why the BSP has taken decisive actions:

 

1. We rolled out the 2024–2029 Financial Services Cyber Resilience Plan (or FSCRP) on August 6, 2024. The plan is a sector-wide roadmap and strategic framework to strengthen the cyber resilience and maturity of the financial services sector.^[6]
2. We created the Financial Cyber Resilience Governance Council on February 11, 2025, to oversee the FSCRP and facilitate coordination, collective decision-making, and guiding efforts toward a unified and proactive cybersecurity posture.
3. We updated IT and risk management rules[7]  to help banks respond faster.
4. We issued guidelines on operational resilience to ensure the continual delivery of critical operations to customers through disruptions. Operational resilience is a critical defense of BSP-supervised financial institutions against cyber threats and climate-related shocks.  

            5. We strengthened KYC and AML standards, including electronic due diligence.[8]^,[9],[10]

6.              6.  We issued enhanced rules for e-money and digital banks^[11],[12]

7. We introduced a regulatory sandbox for testing innovations under the BSP’s oversight[13]
8. We rolled out guidelines for the Anti-Financial Account Scamming Act, or AFASA, in May 2025 to crack down on mule accounts and phishing scams.[14]
9. And we conducted cyber education and awareness initiatives to build the capacity of small and medium-sized financial institutions.

 

We are not plugging leaks—we’re reinforcing the entire system for greater resilience.

 

I for “Inclusivity”

 

One of the most inspiring stories in Philippine banking is our progress in financial inclusion.

 

People who once dealt only in cash—vendors, tricycle drivers, sari-sari store owners—are now part of the digital economy. Thanks to Paleng-QR Ph Plus, now active in 180 LGUs.[15]

 

Even MRT-3 commuters can now tap or scan their way through turnstiles.[16]

 

In 2019, only 29 percent of Filipinos had bank accounts. By 2021, that jumped to 56 percent.[17]

 

But opening an account is just the beginning. MSMEs make up 99 percent of businesses,[18] yet receive less than 3.9 percent of total bank loans.[19]

 

Why? No credit score. No formal income. No paperwork. So, the BSP responded:

 

• We promoted the Basic Deposit Account to bring more people into the formal financial system.[20]
• We launched the Credit Surety Fund and Credit Risk Database to help banks lend with confidence.[21]
• We supported Supply Chain Finance to reach underserved markets.[22]
• And we introduced the Standard Business Loan Application Form to cut red tape for MSMEs.[23]

 

Having worked in government, in multilateral institutions, and on private boards, I have seen that the best lending decisions aren’t always the obvious ones.

 

Inclusion isn’t charity. It’s smart, long-term banking.

 

S for “Sustainability”

 

We can’t talk about resilience without addressing climate and environmental risks.

 

Floods, typhoons, and droughts don’t just damage property—they disrupt business models, strain credit quality, and challenge long-term economic growth.

 

Here is what the BSP is doing:

 

·         Since 2020, we have issued a series of regulations to equip banks to effectively manage climate, environmental, and social risks. We have shifted our focus from reducing the Philippines’ already negligible carbon footprint (just 0.3% of the global total) to adapting to climate change–driven disasters, such as typhoons and flooding, to which our country is among the most vulnerable. Banks should integrate these risk factors into their corporate and risk governance

·         We also released Circular No. 1185[24] to incentivize sustainable financing. For instance:

Ø  A 15-percent increase in the single borrower’s limit for sustainable projects

Ø  And a zero-reserve requirement for sustainable bonds

 

These incentives will run for two years until January 2026—and we’ve already surveyed banks to gather feedback supporting the policy review.

 

·         We introduced the Philippine Sustainable Finance Taxonomy Guidelines,[25] aligned with national climate goals, emphasizing adaptation as the priority action, and ASEAN Taxonomy, to give banks and investors a common language. Following this, a series of supplementary guidance is being issued to ensure consistent interpretation and implementation of the local taxonomy.[26]

·         We are developing an Adaptation and Resilience Catalogue to guide banks in identifying and classifying adaptation-aligned projects. Through stakeholder input, pilot projects, and innovative financing, we aim to show their viability and build confidence in adaptation investments.

 

So, the question isn’t just, “Are you compliant?” It’s “Is your balance sheet future-ready?” Sustainability is not just a reporting line. It is a survival strategy and a leadership opportunity.

 

Finally, E for “Engagement”

 

Good regulation is not one-way. The BSP does not regulate from a tower. We engage, listen, and adapt.

 

We issue exposure drafts, hold policy dialogues, monitor feedback, and co-develop with the industry. We are active on major social media platforms to stay connected with the public. We even have a chatbot to assist financial consumers 24/7 and a mobile app for the most convenient access to BSP resources.

 

BAIPHIL has long played a role in this. My challenge to you: play an even bigger one. Don’t just learn the rules. Help shape them.

 

To the new Board: you step into leadership at a defining moment. My wish for you is simple: rise not just to meet the future, but to shape it.

 

Mabuhay ang BAIPHIL. Thank you very much.

 

 

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[1] Speech of Monetary Board Member Romeo L. Bernardo for the Bankers Institute of the Philippines, Inc. (BAIPHIL) on its 85th anniversary and Induction Ceremony on  August 19 ,2025, Dusit Thani Hotel, Makati City.

[2] Inflation eased to 0.9 percent in July, with a year-to-date average of 1.7 percent, below the government’s target range. https://www.bsp.gov.ph/SitePages/MediaAndResearch/MediaDisp.aspx?ItemId=7614&MType=MediaReleases

[3] Households' mean 12-months-ahead inflation point forecasts eased to 3.7 percent in Q2 2025, from 3.8 percent in Q1. Likewise, firms' mean forecasts decreased to 3.0 percent, from 3.4 percent in the previous quarter. Source: Consumer Expectations Survey (CES), Business Expectations Survey (BES).

[4] The Philippines’ Q2 2025 real GDP growth is next only to Vietnam (8.0 percent); and higher than China (5.2 percent); Indonesia (5.1 percent), Malaysia (4.4 percent) and Singapore (4.3 percent).

[5] Country’s foreign reserves settle at US$105.7 billion in July 2025 Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Media and Research Press Releases 

[6] BSP Launches the 2024 - 2029 Financial Services Cyber Resilience Plan https://www.bsp.gov.ph/SitePages/MediaAndResearch/MediaDisp.aspx?ItemId=7199

[7] Circular No. 808 on IT Risk Management Framework, Circular No. 982 on Information Security Risk Management Framework, Circular No. 1137 on Outsourcing Framework, and Circular No. 1140 on Fraud Management System

[8] Circular No. 1170 dated 30 March 2023 https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Regulations/Published%20Issuances/Images/Circular_1170.pdf

[9] Circular No. 1182 dated 10 November 2023 https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Regulations/Issuances/2023/1182.pdf

[10]  Circular No. 1193 dated 29 April 2024 https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Regulations/Issuances/2024/1193.pdf

[11] Circular No. 1105 dated 02 December 2020, as amended by Circular Nos. 1154 and 1205 dated 14 September 2022 and 26 December 2024, respectively. https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Regulations/Issuances/2020/c1105.pdf

[12] Circular No. 1166 dated 7 February 2023 https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Regulations/Issuances/2023/1166.pdf

^[13] Circular No. 1153 dated 5 Sept. 2022. https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Regulations/Issuances/2022/1153.pdf

[14] https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Regulations/Banking%20Laws/AFASA-Booklet-with-IRRs.pdf

[15] https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Pages/InclusiveFinance/PalengQR/PalengQRProgram.aspx

[16] BSP: Tap-to-pay & scan-to-pay in MRT-3 to drive digitalization transformation https://www.bsp.gov.ph/SitePages/MediaAndResearch/MediaDisp.aspx?ItemId=7598&MType=MediaRelease

[17] https://financialinclusion.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/2024-NSFI-Annual-Report.pdf

[18] https://www.dti.gov.ph/resources/msme-statistics/

[19] https://financialinclusion.gov.ph/fi-dashboard/

[20] Introduced by the BSP in 2018, the BDA aims to meet the needs of the unbanked and low-income sector for affordable and easy-to-open bank accounts. It has a low opening deposit requirement of PHP100 or less, simple identification requirements, no maintaining balance requirement, and no dormancy charges.

[21] https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Inclusive%20Finance/Financial_Inclusion-Advocacies/CSF_Primer.pdf

[22] Input from FSS

[23] Circular No. 1156 dated 30 Sept. 2022 https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Regulations/Issuances/2022/1156.pdf

[24] https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Regulations/Issuances/2023/1185.pdf

[25] Circular No. 1187 dated 21 February 2024. https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Regulations/Issuances/2024/1187.pdf

[26] https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Regulations/Issuances/2025/M-2025-025.pdf; https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Regulations/Issuances/2024/M-2024-028.pdf; https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Regulations/Issuances/2024/M-2024-035.pdf

Keynote Message: Outstanding BSP Stakeholders Appreciation Ceremonies 2025

 

One Goal, Many Hands[1]

Keynote Message

Outstanding BSP Stakeholders Appreciation Ceremonies 2025
BSP Head Office,18 July 2025

 

 

Good morning everyone. I have been tasked to fill in for the Governor, who I know you were all expecting to speak at this event. Think of me as the BSP’s contingency reserve – called in only when the main asset is under the weather.

 

 I promise this is well within prudential limits.

 

To our partners from the public and private sectors and to my colleagues from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, good morning.

 

It is an honor to welcome you all to the 2025 Outstanding BSP Stakeholders Appreciation Ceremonies.

 

This tradition began in 2004 as a simple gesture of gratitude to the respondents of our Business Expectation Survey. Since then, it has grown into a meaningful platform to recognize organizations that help us fulfill our mandates and extend our reach.

You come from different yet equally critical sectors such as banking and finance, local government units, professional and industry associations and beyond.

 

Each of you contributes to our shared mission of ensuring efficient currency circulation, promoting financial inclusion, and guarding against illegal financial practices. Your roles may differ, but your impact is profound.

 

Some go even further. Since 2011, the Bureau of Fire Protection, with the help of BSP, has trained 160 fire officers to deliver financial literacy sessions, educating over 3,100 new recruits.[2] This kind of initiative shows how far collaboration can go.

 

This reminds us that while we come from different backgrounds and bring diverse perspectives, meaningful results happen when we work together.

 

I am reminded of a striking moment in history. In 1939, as war broke out across Europe, two men stood watch atop of King’s College Chapel in Cambridge to protect it from German bombs.

 

They were John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich Hayek. Both giants in economic thought whose views were famously diametrically opposed. Keynes championed government intervention to stabilize markets, while Hayek warned against it, believing in free-market principles. Yet that night, they worked side by side, united by a bigger cause.

 

To our awardees, thank you for your dedication, your courage, and service.

 

Congratulations, and mabuhay kayo!

 

(END)

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[1] Speech of BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona for the OBSAC 2025 on 18 July 2025, at the Assembly Hall, BSP Head Office

[2] From OBSAC briefer: “In 2024, BFP successfully rolled out financial education programs to 3,101 newly recruited Fire Officer 1 personnel and 25 non-uniformed personnel, demonstrating its dedication to ensuring financial literacy across all levels of its workforce. Additionally, 554 personnel participated in the ‘Credit Card 101’ session on 19 July 2024, further expanding the reach of financial education initiatives.  A total of 164 BFP trainers underwent a ‘Training of Trainers’ workshop, equipping them to effectively deliver financial education programs to their colleagues.”

The looming trade war: What US tariffs mean for the Philippines

May 2, 2025 I 12:30am  

BusinessWorld By Romeo L. Bernardo

 

THE LATEST World Economic Outlook from the IMF paints a sobering picture of the global economy. Growth projections have been revised downward, with global growth expected to drop to 2.8% in 2025, around half-a-percentage point decline. This is largely attributed to escalating trade tensions, including the sweeping tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump, which have brought effective tariff rates to levels not seen in over a century. It also creates inflation pressures for some countries, notably the US. Unless anchored by credible monetary policymaking by the Fed, the US runs the risk of having both low growth, even a recession, as well as high inflation. In a word — stagflation — a phenomenon familiar to those of us who were around in the 1970s, that had serious spillovers globally, triggering the Latin American and Philippine debt crisis.

But even if stagflation does not happen, the global uncertainty will exact a heavy toll all around. Even the US dollar and US treasuries have not been exempt. For the first time, it lost value in a crisis, as countries and people lost confidence in the US and the dollar as a safe haven.

The world remains in flux, but it seems less alarming than when Trump said he wanted Powell fired. Nonetheless, we need to wait and see what Donald has to say as the 90-day pause counts down.

The Philippines is not spared from this global turbulence, though its outlook is less worrisome in relative terms, compared with other emerging markets. Coming from a period of strong growth, most forecasts anticipate, at most, a one-percentage-point impact on projected growth, still over 5% in most cases, including the IMF and World Bank. Fitch Ratings has also just affirmed our stable BBB credit rating. This resilience is supported by our lower exposure to trade shocks, reliable earnings from overseas Filipino workers and business process outsourcing, a more favorable treatment under the Trump tariff regime including lower tariffs at 17% and global exemptions of all semiconductors and electronics, a manageable fiscal position, a crisis-tested financial system, adequate foreign exchange reserves and an independent — and if I may say, a most competent — central bank.

Inflation has also been trending downward to 2-3% from the high of 8% in 2023, allowing BSP to lower policy rates by 100 basis points to date. The governor has signaled more easing for the rest of the year as inflation is expected to be within our target range, and will help compensate for the deflationary effects of the trade war. Lower prices of oil, coal, fertilizers, some food imports — a side effect of lower global demand due to tariffs — will support this stance.

We do have to worry about a few things. First, the rules-based global trading system: The trade war challenges the principles that have underpinned international trade for decades. It undermines the predictability and stability that businesses rely on for cross-border transactions. The imposition of tariffs and retaliatory measures disrupts established norms and can lead to a fragmented global trading environment, with deleterious effects on investments and long-term growth and development, as Governor Remolona observed in a recent IMF panel.

Second, this global disorder, unless sorted out soon, primarily between the US and China, can evolve into a somos o no somos world.

As spheres of influence built around security, technology (especially AI) and trade are forcibly made exclusive, the cost of global disruption will be even more elevated and especially challenging for countries like the Philippines, who have deep and multifaceted economic ties with both the US and China.

The desire to contain China by US authorities enjoys bi-partisan support, so we may all be caught in a Thucydides Trap scenario over the medium to long term. Even if the tariffs are rolled back, we shouldn’t expect that things will revert to the pre-Trump status quo.

Allow me to conclude by sharing a few tentative suggestions on how we, as a country and people, might prepare ourselves to cope — and, I dare say, maybe even thrive — during these exciting times.

First, we should build financial resiliency by, for example, sustaining fiscal consolidation, upscaling systemic risk vigilance — including preparing and maintaining a ready crisis management playbook — and ensuring that our foreign exchange reserves remain ample. Second, we should enhance food and energy security. Third, we should strengthen our ties with ASEAN. This includes the aforementioned cooperation in the food and energy sectors where   our neighbors are exporters, as well as advancing financial cooperation (e.g., currency swap arrangements) and pursuing third-party trade negotiations.

Fourth, we should negotiate for compensatory concessions from the US, such as through friend-shoring initiatives or the establishment of a free trade agreement. (We need to remind ourselves what Dr. Kissinger said — It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.) Fifth, we should diversify our economic, financial and trade relationships with a broader set of countries and institutions.

Sixth, we should exploit our relative tariff advantage in the US market by attracting investors, especially those already operating in the Philippines, to consider future expansions here. Seventh, we should forge national cohesion, both politically and economically. In particular, economically via public-private collaboration, as we did during the COVID-19 crisis.

 

Romeo L. Bernardo is a member of the Philippine central bank’s Monetary Board (MB). The views expressed here, which he delivered in a speech before the Asia Society on April 30, do not necessarily reflect those of the MB or the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.

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